Value Betting Strategies

We have talked about value betting in the past at GOSUBETTING, touching upon this practice in other guides and detailing the best software that can help you take advantage of favorable odds. Like value investing, a strategy entailing purchasing undervalued stocks relative to their intrinsic value, championed and popularized by Warren Buffett, value betting is also about finding gambling worth where others do not see it. In short, this concept revolves around spotting betting opportunities where the outcome probability is higher than what the bookmaker-set odds say.

Usually, when the topic of value betting pops up, experienced gamblers advise novices to develop a good grasp of probability and how this relates to wagering odds. Then, quality odds shopping is a must, as well as conducting thorough research, specializing in only sports/leagues where one has in-depth knowledge, on top of staying disciplined and implementing proper bankroll management. They may add that staying up-to-date with news/developments and keeping records are major necessities. Nonetheless, here, we will try to dive deeper into profitable strategies for value sports gambling. So, let us get to giving you with this info that can significantly aid in turning profits via this now-established pastime.

Oh, before starting, we should note how value betting differs from expected Value wagering, known as EV betting. That involves assessing long-term returns by factoring the probabilities for a positive expected value. Conversely, value betting is just taking advantage of badly placed bookie odds. In general, EV betting is a broader concept. Accordingly, it is good to keep that in mind.

Manual Value Bet Searching

A bettor must cultivate a more-than-decent know-how in spotting odd discrepancies to excel in manual searching, a process that entails continuously looking at odds across a vast array of bookmakers, particularly lining up soft (slow to update) against sharp sites. That is what sharpens the eye for patterns and mispriced wagering coefficients, the foundation of value betting. But only doing this will rarely suffice. Furthermore, it can even produce errors if done sloppily.

Proficiency in statistical modeling and mathematics is more or less mandatory for high accuracy in this practice. Mathematics comes into play through probability theory, converting the found odds into implied probabilities. Stacking these figures up to one’s calculated probabilities can reveal the discrepancies we are looking for. To be as close to accurately calculating the event result probability, you must know how to analyze different sets of stats. These include things like a recent run of form, injuries, and historical data. Based on being able to do this successfully, you can then build a statistical model to predict outcomes that hinge on discovered and tried-and-tested variables.

We recommend focusing on only one sport you are most proficient in and not trying to cast a wide analysis net, which can be counterproductive. What is also true most of the time is the unwritten rule that bookies usually make mistakes on unpopular sports and smaller markets. They do poorly in defining the real probability of these. So, it is a good idea to stick to them.

Overall, this practice requires expertise, patience, and a discerning eye. It is not something that everyone can do. Plus, some believe that they cannot do it anywhere near as effectively as companies that have developed solutions that do this automatically. That is why most bettors opt to pay for such services, something we go into below.

Paid Value Betting Services

We recently ran an extensive article detailing four value betting services that most gamblers we talk to use and praise. As discussed above, many bettors find it much more comfortable to pay a fee for a service that handles their value searching for them. The top software from this category on the Web (in the eyes of many) is RebelBetting. In our dedicated article on this topic, we called it the most established option, and we are not shy to reaffirm that here. It promises a monthly ROI of 30%, boasting a pro plan that lists a monthly price tag of €199. Its starter one is €99. We enjoy this solution’s BetTracker, its automatic bet-settlement function, and like that it supplies a two-week trial period.

BetBurger and BetWasp are pretty much the same, with the latter choice focusing on the US and Canada regions. These picks get complimented for their fast-scanning speed and the robust availability of filters they offer. A monthly subscription to BetBurger will run you from €159 to €359, depending on what package you select, with identical fees applying for BetWasp.

OddsJam is a premium US-centric service that is probably the priciest option on the market, listing a monthly tag of $1,499. It does supply one-on-one coaching and a dedicated arbitrage tool. If you are into soccer/football and find the alternatives listed above too rich for your blood, you may consider SureBet. It is a somewhat more UX-wise rudimentary service that still does a decent job and will not break the bank at €25.90 per month.

Betting With Bots

It goes without saying that this is dangerous, as most online sportsbooks will suspend/close your account if they suspect that you are using software on your sports betting journey. Nonetheless, many bettors opt for implementing automated scripts called bots that can follow different predefined betting strategies. These can also get fed info from third parties and use these to make wagers. We should tell you that BetWasp, for example, has a semi-automated tool, and these are slowly becoming a trend, as software can make bets faster and snag time-limited opportunities. Therefore, if you can find a good bot with the correct filters and a quality staking tactic that you can put to use through it, you may want to give this a shot. We do not condone it, as it will likely violate your chosen hub’s terms of use, and we do not think that risking getting blacklisted is worth it.

General Value Betting Tips

Here are some things you should also have in the back of your head, ones most veteran value bettors will tell you to remember. A quality staking strategy will lower volatility, and it is always best to pair this with disciplined long-term money management. Avoid focusing on major events, which may lead to your bookie limiting your account. Look to mix your value bets, and laying down ones on odds between 3 and 1.40 should lower volatility. Use filters and keep records. Lastly, do not jump on value bets displayed by services that promise a huge payout, as these could be software errors, which some call value traps. Hence, analyze them for yourself before jumping on them.

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