My Pick: Carolina Panthers/Chicago Bears Over 41 (-115)
Trends and match analysis
Some general trends point towards this game going over the total.
Teams playing conference games as a home favorite with a line that’s less than -5 are 233-229-6 Over/Under (50.4%) since September 25, 2016 and have gone 7-1 Over/Under since September 23, 2024.
Filtering that down to only teams playing on standard rest (6 days/each) increases that record to 113-89-3 Over/Under (55.9%) and went 3-0 Over/Under in games last weekend.
Filtering that down further to teams that are also coming off a win as a home favorite increases the record further to 18-8 Over/Under (69.2%) with teams going 6-1 Over/Under (85.7%) since the 2022 season.
Essentially, it’s a pretty heavy over spot when teams are playing conference games that are projected to be close (small line) when they are coming off a win as a home favorite and are playing on the standard amount of rest (6 days).
The Bears – Trends and thoughts
The Chicago Bears are coming off a great home win against the Rams and will now face a Carolina Panthers team that’s 1-3 this season and has allowed at least 22 points in each of the four games they’ve played. However, the Bears aren’t really the type of team that we see favored on a regular basis.
In fact, since the 2020 season Chicago has been a favorite just fifteen times while being an underdog the remaining fifty six. Not only is Chicago a favorite to win this weekend, but they’ve been favored in both of their other home games this season and have gone 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS while scoring exactly 24 points in each as well.
When favored at home, the Bears tend to win games and go over the total. Since the 1992 season, Chicago is 83-43 SU (65.9%) and 69-52-5 Over/Under (57.0%) playing conference games as a home favorite.
More recently, Chicago is 5-1 Over/Under playing conference games as a home favorite since the 2022 season and the only under came when both teams were playing on short rest (3 days each).
If you thought Chicago being favored was something you didn’t see on a regular basis, imagine the Bears being favored at home after they won as a favorite at home the previous week – that’s something we’ve only seen sixteen times since the 1990 season and the Bears are 11-5 Over/Under (68.8%) in that spot and scored 20+ points in all but just three of those.
When in that spot we see records improve to 8-3 Over/Under (72.7%) when the total is above 40 and 8-2 Over/Under (80.0%) when the line is less than -5.
Historically, when the Bears are favored at home they tend to score points. That’s especially true when they’re rested, coming off a win as a home favorite, and playing with a fairly small line and somewhat low total.
As previously mentioned, the Panthers have allowed at least 22 points in every other game this season. Considering the spot that Chicago is in here, I could certainly see them scoring at least 22 again this weekend.
The Panthers – trends and thoughts
On the other side, let’s take a look at the Carolina Panthers. I’ve already mentioned how poorly their defense has been this season, and I’d be saying the same thing about their offense if Bryce Young were still the starting QB, but that isn’t the case anymore.
Carolina started the season scoring 3 points and 10 points their first two games with Young behind center. Since having Andy Dalton take over at QB, the Panthers have gone 2-0 Over/Under and have scored at least 24 points in each game.
Dalton has brought a bit of life into this team and has been connecting with his receivers, throwing for 200+ yards and 2+ touchdowns in each of his two starts. He’s got one interception in there and the Bears have had an interception for a touchdown in each of their home games this season, so that could present a problem for him this weekend but it further supports the over in this game.
Carolina is 8-3-1 Over/Under (72.7%) playing conference games as a road underdog when they lost their previous game as a home underdog and both teams are playing on standard rest (6 days each).
Not only has this been a heavy over spot for the Panthers, but the Bears have also allowed at least 17 points in each game this season. We might not see Dalton have the 319 Yard/3 Touchdown game he had against Las Vegas this weekend, but he should be able to get some points on the board versus a Bears team that gave up 224 yards to Matthew Stafford last weekend.
Match history
Chicago has faced Carolina four times as a home favorite.
They’re 3-1 Over/Under with the only under coming when both teams were playing on short rest.
All three others totaled at least 55 points and the Bears won each game straight up while failing to cover the spread in each.
We could see similar point totals this weekend as Carolina’s defense has been giving up plenty, but their QB Andy Dalton has been putting points on the board from an offensive standpoint as well.
Betting tip
Analysis of this game indicates there’s a strong chance of a payoff from a bet on Carolina Panthers/Chicago Bears Over 41 (-115).
Suggested bookmaker: Betplay.io
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