Leicester City vs Chelsea Match Preview 23.11.24: Betting-Related Data Analysis & Predictions

• Match Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024
• Venue: King Power Stadium, Leicester
• Kick-off: 3:00 PM GMT

There are some fascinating betting-related aspects to this game. Read on for the full match analysis or listen to the prediction model podcast below:

Leicester City have the home advantage when they host Chelsea in a widely anticipated Premier League clash at King Power Stadium. Both teams have had fluctuating seasons, with Chelsea aiming to secure a spot near the top of the table and Leicester striving to climb higher in the standings.

The tactical matchup suggests a game where Chelsea’s control of possession faces off against Leicester’s disciplined defence and explosive counter-attacks. Each team will look to impose its style, making the outcome likely dependent on which side can best execute its game plan and adapt in real time to the other’s strengths and weaknesses.

Chelsea are expected to use a 4-3-3 formation with high pressing and possession play. They’ll look to dominate midfield with Fernández dictating play and James adding width. The team’s attacking fullbacks will be crucial in stretching Leicester’s defence.

Leicester City are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-1-4-1 formation, emphasizing a compact defence and looking to strike quickly on the counter.

The makeup of the match suggests a Chelsea win by a single goal and a probability of a Chelsea win of 65%. It could be a tight and tense game leading to an expected goals (xG) figure of 3.

Let’s see how the full match prediction model correlates with this initial analysis:

Leicester City Team Form and Recent Performances

As of November 11, 2024, Leicester City is facing a challenging phase in the Premier League, with recent performances reflecting their difficulty in securing wins.

Leicester lost 3-1 at home to Nottingham Forest on October 25th. Jamie Vardy scored an equalizer, but defensive lapses ultimately led to defeat.

This match was followed by a 1-1 away draw against Ipswich Town, extending Leicester’s winless streak to two matches.

Leicester’s season so far reflects generally solid home performances and a focus on counter-attacking play. However, inconsistency, particularly against top-tier teams, remains a concern. Manager Enzo Maresca emphasizes defensive stability while capitalizing on Leicester’s quick transitions.

Chelsea Team Form and Recent Performances

Chelsea FC is enjoying a strong run of form across competitions, marked by resilience and offensive effectiveness.

In the Premier League, Chelsea defeated Newcastle United 2-1 at Stamford Bridge with goals from Joao Felix and Mykhailo Mudryk in late October, while on November 3 Chelsea drew 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, with Moises Caicedo scoring a key second-half equalizer.

On October 24th, a UEFA Conference League match saw Chelsea triumph 4-1 over Panathinaikos away, with Christopher Nkunku scoring a hat-trick.

On November 7, 2024, The Blues dominated FC Noah 8-0 at Stamford Bridge, featuring goals from several players, including a brace from Nkunku.

Chelsea’s recent performances highlight their offensive strength and solid defence, driven by experienced players and emerging talent. The team aims to sustain this momentum to secure their Premier League standing and advance in the UEFA Conference League.

Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea has been developing a high-pressing, possession-oriented style. Though inconsistent on the road, recent weeks have shown improvement. While Chelsea boasts a potent attack, the team occasionally struggles against well-organized defences as we’ve seen in recent games between the two teams.

Leicester vs. Chelsea Head-to-Head Match Record

• Last 5 Matches: Chelsea have dominated recent encounters, winning 3 out of the last 5 games, with Leicester winning once and one game ending in a draw.
• At King Power Stadium: Chelsea have been successful on recent visits to Leicester, though the Foxes remain competitive at home and can be difficult to break down.

The experience gained from previous head-to-heads is likely to be forefront in both side’s pre-match thoughts and shape their intended tactical approach.

Potential Tactical Approaches

Both teams are expected to deploy strategies that capitalize on their strengths and exploit their opponent’s vulnerabilities.

Leicester’s success will depend heavily on playmaking and Wilfred Ndidi’s defensive strength. Effective control of the midfield and smooth transitions could help Leicester create chances to challenge Chelsea’s defence.

For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández’s midfield control and their general attacking prowess will be key. If Chelsea dominates possession, Reece James on the flanks may pose significant challenges for Leicester’s defence.

What Possession-Based Tactics Might Play a Part in the Game?

In the upcoming match, Chelsea’s possession-based tactics will aim to control the pace, break down Leicester’s defensive structure, and create scoring opportunities, while Leicester will seek to maintain a disciplined defensive setup and capitalize on counter-attacking chances. Key possession strategies include:

Chelsea’s possessional tactical approach

• Building from the back: Starting play from center-back Benoît Badiashile, Chelsea will progress through short passes to draw Leicester’s press and create space. This tactic helps Chelsea control play and pull Leicester’s midfield out of position, limiting counter-attacks and dictating the game’s tempo.
• Overloading midfield: With players like Enzo Fernández and Moises Caicedo positioned close together, Chelsea can maintain possession and create passing options. The midfield overload forces Leicester’s defensive players, like Ndidi, to cover multiple players, opening up spaces for Chelsea to play forward passes.
• Switching play: Through players like Reece James and Marc Cucurella, Chelsea will switch the ball across the pitch to stretch Leicester’s defence. This movement forces Leicester’s defenders to shift and creates space for wingers to attack from wide areas.
• Patience in the final third: Chelsea will circulate the ball around Leicester’s penalty area, waiting for defensive lapses to open up scoring opportunities. This patient approach wears down Leicester’s defensive position, potentially leading to mistakes that Chelsea can exploit with quick shots or passes.
• Positional rotation and third-man runs: Positional rotations can create confusion in Leicester’s defence, while third-man runs allow players to advance the ball. These dynamic movements can disrupt Leicester’s marking, creating gaps in defence for Chelsea’s attackers to exploit.
• Counter-pressing after losing possession: Chelsea will engage in immediate counter-pressing with players like Enzo Fernández to regain possession quickly. This tactic limits Leicester’s chance to counter-attack and helps Chelsea maintain territorial control.

Leicester’s defensive responses

• Against midfield overloads: Leicester may have Ndidi press Chelsea’s ball carrier, while the rest of the team maintains a compact shape to cover gaps.
• Against wide play and switching: Leicester’s defenders will stay narrow and prepared to track Chelsea’s wingers to limit their impact.
• Against counter-pressing: Leicester will look to play the ball quickly to wide areas or drop deeper, allowing them to bypass Chelsea’s press and initiate counters.

To complement this breakdown of how each team might approach the game tactically, let’s compare their strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Both Teams Compared

Leicester City Strengths

• Quick counter-attacks: Leicester’s rapid transitions make them dangerous on the counter. Against a Chelsea team that may press high, Leicester will likely focus on exploiting spaces with quick breakaways.
• Solid defensive structure: Leicester’s compact and organized defence can frustrate high-possession teams like Chelsea, forcing them to break down a well-structured backline.

The Foxes Weaknesses

• Vulnerability to high press: Leicester struggles against aggressive presses, which Chelsea may exploit by forcing turnovers high up the pitch, disrupting Leicester’s buildup.
• Reliance on Counter-Attacks: Leicester’s counter-dependent style could be limiting if Chelsea dominates possession, keeping Leicester pinned back and reducing offensive momentum.

Chelsea Strengths

• Possession and control in midfield: Chelsea’s possession-based approach, driven by players like Enzo Fernández, can stretch Leicester’s defence, creating spaces to attack.
• Wide play and overlapping full-backs: Chelsea’s wide play with wingers and Reece James on the overlap can break down Leicester’s compact structure, creating crossing opportunities.

The Blues Weaknesses

• Exposure to counters: Chelsea’s high defensive line, especially with attacking full-backs, risks exposure to counter-attacks, where Leicester’s forwards can capitalize on open spaces.
• Dependence on individual creativity: Against deep defences, Chelsea sometimes relies heavily on individual plays over cohesive team movements, which may struggle against Leicester’s compact setup.

Overall, Leicester’s success may depend on their ability to bypass Chelsea’s press. Effective pressing from Chelsea could disrupt Leicester’s counters, but if Leicester evades it, they could exploit Chelsea’s high line.

Chelsea’s wide play will be key to breaking Leicester’s structure. Successful width could create gaps, while solid defending by Leicester’s full-backs could limit Chelsea’s penetration.

Chelsea’s possession game will control the midfield, but Leicester’s ability to capitalize on turnovers could lead to momentum shifts. Chelsea must avoid risky central passes to prevent quick Leicester counters, though Chelsea’s key players can play a big role in keeping control.

Key Players to Watch

Leicester City:

• Wilfred Ndidi: Ndidi’s tackling and interception skills are crucial for disrupting Chelsea’s play and initiating Leicester’s transitions. His defensive role will be essential for shielding the backline and limiting Chelsea’s midfield influence.

Chelsea:

• Enzo Fernández: Enzo’s passing range allows him to control Chelsea’s tempo and open up space for attackers with precise distribution. Vital in transitioning play from defence to attack, creating chances through long balls and through passes.
• Reece James: Known for both defensive reliability and attacking support, James offers overlapping runs and dangerous crosses. Expected to provide width and key crosses, impacting both defence and attack.
• Robert Sánchez: Plays a key role in organizing Chelsea from the back, with his shot-stopping abilities and confidence in handling crosses. His precise distribution also aids Chelsea in initiating plays and maintaining possession.

With such a high number of key players on the pitch, we can expect to see some interesting in-game battles.

Key Battles to Watch

The outcomes of several individual battles could heavily influence the game’s flow and final score, with control in midfield, defensive solidity, and set-piece execution all playing key roles.

Chelsea’s Strikers (Nicolas Jackson) vs. Wout Faes: Target play and finishing vs. defensive presence.

Chelsea’s success in the box will depend on the striker’s ability to outplay Faes. Winning this duel could pressure Leicester’s defence and open up scoring chances.

Wilfred Ndidi vs. Carney Chukwuemeka: Defensive coverage vs. attacking runs

Ndidi’s role in disrupting Chelsea’s attacks will be vital. If he contains Chukwuemeka’s late runs, Leicester can maintain defensive shape. Otherwise, Chelsea may gain space for key offensive moves.

Set-Pieces: Chelsea’s Defense vs. Leicester’s Attackers: Aerial duels and positioning

Leicester’s strength in aerial play, especially with players like Wout Faes, could challenge Chelsea’s set-piece defence. Strong organization from Chelsea’s backline will be essential to prevent scoring opportunities and there may be some aggressive tackles.

Aggressiveness Aspects

In this matchup, aggressiveness indicators will likely manifest in high pressing, intense tackling, and physical duels. Players like Ndidi and Faes for Leicester will focus on defensive aggression, aiming to limit Chelsea’s build-up play and attack on the wings.

Chelsea, with Caicedo, will aim to dominate the midfield with pressing and ball recovery, forcing Leicester into mistakes. Meanwhile, James may draw Leicester into physical confrontations, generating free-kick opportunities that could prove decisive.

These aggressive matchups will shape the game’s intensity, with fouls, challenges, and potentially yellow cards affecting the flow and momentum. The team that can maintain their aggression without conceding fouls in dangerous areas will have an advantage in dictating the match’s pace and outcome.

Injuries and Suspensions Impacting the Match

For details on player injuries across all the Premier League teams including both contestants in this match, visit the official Premier League player injuries page.

From a suspensions perspective, Leicester have the biggest worry, with key player Facundo Buonanotte out of the match suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards. Come the day of the game, Chelsea could be in a similar situation with Nicolas Jackson sitting on four cautions prior to their upcoming clash with Arsenal.

Leicester vs. Chelsea Pre-Match Predictions, Betting Tips, and Score Forecast

This match promises to be competitive, with Chelsea slightly favoured due to their quality and recent head-to-head success. Leicester’s counter-attacking approach could exploit Chelsea’s high defensive line, but if Chelsea maintains effective possession, they have a strong chance to secure the win.

Who Will Win the Match?

Chelsea’s attacking style is likely to prove too much for Leicester to handle. I confidently predict a Chelsea win by a narrow margin.

Predicted Scoreline/Total Goals

Leicester City 1-2 Chelsea

BTTS Prediction

Yes, both teams to score. Both teams have offensive weapons, and Chelsea’s defence has shown enough vulnerability that they could concede, especially when facing counter-attacks.

Over 2.5 Goals

While the scoreline is predicted to end up 1-2, it’s entirely possible that the teams may find enough from their strengths to score extra goals.

In-Play Betting Predictions

For those bettors who are interested in live or in-play betting, a likely key match event might be around the team that scores first. One scenario is that Leicester get the first goal on a break but later succumb to Chelsea’s forward play. If Chelsea gets the first goal, Leicester may struggle to find enough chances to fight back and push the game harder.

A red card for a player on either team will push the advantage to the side with a full complement of players on the pitch.

First Team to Score

On balance, there is significant potential for Chelsea to find the back of the net first.

First Goal-Scorer

Nicolas Jackson looks a good bet to score first in this game, given the Chelsea striker will be going all out to outplay Faes in the Leicester backline. If Jackson can exert enough pressure on Leicester’s defence it should open up scoring chances.

Betting Odds and Insights

No odds are available this far is advance of the game. Bookies are expected to specify odds for different match outcomes a few days before the game at the earliest. Check back here for odds nearer the date of the match.

Live Match Updates

You can get a view of match progress in real time by checking out the GOSUBetting live scores page.

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Useful Betting Tools and Calculators for the Match

If you’re placing a bet on this match, these tools can help with your betting strategies:

• Betting calculators for managing risk and calculating payouts.
• Odds comparison for comparing and finding the best odds.
• Betting software for identifying standout arbitrage or value bets.

Conclusion

Chelsea’s possession tactics will focus on controlling the game, breaking Leicester’s defensive lines, and minimizing counter-attacks. Leicester’s defensive organization and ability to capitalize on Chelsea’s transitions will be crucial in resisting Chelsea’s possession game and finding opportunities to strike on the counter.

A tight game is in prospect, likely resulting in a Chelsea win by one goal.