Betting on Influencer Boxing – Worth It?

In the past few years, celebrity boxing has exploded. Events featuring influencers duking it out have attracted millions and have generated boatloads of cash for promoters and those competing in them. Some may say that the first Logan Paul vs. KSI fight kicked off this trend, and as far as these bouts getting massive mainstream attention goes, that is probably correct. Yet, something that we must point out is that famous or semi-famous people with little to no fighting experience competing in combat sports is not something new.

One may argue that a celebrity fight was the 1976 mixed-rules exhibition between Antonio Inoki, a famous Japanese pro wrestler, and boxing legend Muhammad Ali, as this was a mega crossover spectacle that inspired similar events in the decades to come. One high-profile instance of non-fighters in the limelight deciding to throw blows for money was the 1990s fight between disgraced figure skater Tonya Harding and Paula Jones, known for her lawsuit against President Bill Clinton.

Former Partridge Family child star Danny Bonaduce also took part in multiple exhibition fights in the mid-1990s, and FOX had a short-lived Celebrity Boxing TV show in the early 2000s that featured the likes of Todd Bridges and Vanilla Ice. Yet, the rise of social media popularized influencer boxing in the late 2010s, and now multiple organizations exist that run these kinds of events. Of course, the November 2024 contest between YouTube sensation Jake Paul and ex-heavyweight champion and former wunderkind Mike Tyson is probably the celebrity boxing match that has drawn the most attention worldwide, as Netflix reported that it was streamed live by over one hundred and eight million people.

Naturally, online and offline bookmakers have no issue accepting bets on these events, even though many shun them as sideshow attractions. Below, we get into whether it is worth your while to explore them as legitimate wagering opportunities or not.

Understanding Celebrity Boxing Matches

Celebrity boxing matches are usually ranked as exhibitions. What does that mean? It means that they do not get regulated by athletic commissions that exist to protect the well-being of professional and amateur athletes, ensuring that fights happen between opponents at similar/same skill levels.

However, some celebrity boxing matches do get regulated by athletic commissions in lax territories like Texas. That is why the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight happened at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington—because the Texas athletic commission was one of the few that would allow a contest between a man who was almost sixty and someone in their twenties. Others, more stringent ones, would not permit such a contest because they would label it unfair and worry about the well-being of the older competitor.

Moreover, since most influencers have no combat sports experience, their contests do not follow pro standards. That means they often have shorter round durations, with rounds often lasting two minutes or less, compared to the standard three. The fights also have fewer rounds, rarely over six, whereas top boxers in championship-level bouts go twelve. Influencers and celebrities also often wear protective headgear and have larger gloves on—usually twelve- to sixteen-ounce ones, compared to the traditional eight to ten.

In some events, if the fight goes the distance, it gets ruled a draw so that both competitors save face, and referees traditionally are more lenient with minor rule violations, like clinching, to keep the action flowing.

Hence, given all this, it is clear that they are not legitimate boxing contests. They are boxing lite, a safer version tailored for non-professionals who are likely to gas fast and be super sloppy after the initial few minutes. For the most part, they are not a serious athletic competition.

What Is the Appeal of Celebrity/Influencer Boxing?

People’s obsession with this entertainment form primarily lies in the fact that they have an emotional investment in the competitors. They know them and their stories, so they are more invested in what will happen in their fights. Furthermore, since most of these influencers have never fought, there is a high level of unpredictability in their contests. They primarily bring star power and big egos, promoting their fights on social media as can’t-miss drama that draws people in. But when it comes to fight time, most viewers quickly become aware that these are not skilled individuals who actually know how to throw punches and that they got drawn into watching these fighting novices compete purely on the basis of the storyline involved. Not what they bring to the table, skill-wise, which is rarely something of value.

The Betting Landscape

Traditional boxing odds lean on fight records and styles. With influencers/celebrities, there is no track record a bookie can look at to gauge who is more likely to win and why. So, the odds are often guesswork based on things like fan buzz or a fighter’s physique. Most laypeople unfamiliar with boxing were super confident that a fifty-eight-year-old Mike Tyson would beat a twenty-seven-year-old Jake Paul, even though Mike Tyson looked horrible in his last pro fight two decades before, where he quit on the stool fighting an unheralded Kevin McBride. They held this erroneous belief because of what Tyson was in his twenties, and bookmakers actually gave him a decent shot to win, putting him at +200, while giving Paul -200 odds.

The markets available for most influencer matches are pretty standard, meaning they are your typical moneyline, over/under rounds, and various prop bets, primarily ways of victory.

Again, the problem with betting on these contests is that there are loads of unknowns, and a hype-driven approach makes odds volatile and tough to nail down. One cannot even orient by a person’s athletic background. A few years back, when Jake Paul fought former NBA player Nate Robinson, most thought the latter’s superior athletic ability would give him the edge, but he ended up losing via devastating KO by Paul, whose power punching was unknown at the time. So, physical attributes are not a super reliable gauge in these contests, as someone being taller and longer will not do them much good if they lack speed, punching power, timing, and technique. Those things are impossible to figure out by just watching anyone doing only pad work.

Should You Bet on Influencer Boxing?

Value bets can be found, sure, as in the case of Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, where, to anyone familiar with boxing, it was clear that a fifty-eight-year-old Tyson had no shot of winning against such a younger and active opponent, despite what the public thought of him. Accordingly, cases do exist where big-name influencers draw massive public support, even when, realistically, their skills don’t match their fame. Casual bettors pile money on them, inflating the odds.

Yet, overall, we would say that influencer boxing is a gamble with plenty of pitfalls and largely should be avoided. There is no way to tell how good someone is unless they have had multiple fights against decent competition. And these events thrive on spectacle—they are not matches between skilled persons, but exhibitions of nonsense for the most part. We say avoid them, as you cannot do any research on them, and you are gambling purely based on hunches.

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