Herd Mentality: Why Bettors Follow the Crowd

We have analyzed multiple psychological phenomena at GOSUBETTING and how they relate to online sports betting. These have been rather successful guides, and we enjoy telling our readers how to avoid potential pitfalls existing in the Internet wagering landscape. Hence, here, we are going to tell you about another danger that has plagued bettors everywhere – herd mentality.

What is herd mentality? It is the tendency to conform one’s beliefs to those of a group. This is a concept that has been studied from a biological, psychological, and sociological perspective, and it is a phenomenon that has profound impacts on humans and how they act.

We all know that most individuals follow the actions of the larger group. Few are independent thinkers who do what they think is best. That also applies to sports betting, where many casual and novice gamblers get drastically affected by mob behavior, a term coined by Gustave Le Bon and Gabriel Tarde, two 19th-century social psychologists. Bettors often place wagers based on what the majority is doing, assuming the collective wisdom is more likely to be correct than their reasoning. They do this also on account of the fear of missing out (FOMO), which we discussed in a previous article, believing that the majority is better informed, taking emotional comfort that they are relying on group think that should be more accurate than a single person.

Now while this approach can sometimes be beneficial, it also carries significant risks, leading to inflated odds, overvalued teams, and so on. In gambling, hype can be a blinding thing, and below, we go more into exposing herd mentality and how it affects the betting arena.

Understanding Herd Mentality in Betting

Herd mentality, groupthink, whatever you want to call it, it all means the same thing, or mimicking the behavior of a larger group instead of making independent choices. This is something that happens in all walks of life. In finance, it leads to asset bubbles and crashes when investors blindly follow trends without understanding and evaluating underlying fundamentals. Similarly, bettors frequently place wagers on popular teams or heavily favored sides because others are doing the same.

They do this on account of multiple factors. As we already pointed out, you have the fear of missing out, from seeing others getting excited about betting on a perceived sure thing encourages them to jump on the same bandwagon. You also have social influence, the assumption the crowd possesses superior knowledge. There is safety in numbers. Right? Moreover, many fall prey to information that supports public opinion rather than analyzing things on their own.

Then, we have bettors being influenced nowadays by social media figures/tipsters promoting specific bets. Their impressive followings create the illusion of expertise. Sports networks are often too guilty of pushing narratives that can influence public betting behavior. For example, if a superstar player is having a standout season, public perception may overvalue them, and then there is momentum betting and wagering on teams/athletes on hot streaks.

Recognizing these influences can help bettors make more rational decisions, and during major events like the World Cup and Super Bowl, herd mentality is usually in full swing, given that public sentiment regarding these happenings drives massive wagering on trends.

When Following the Crowd Leads to Bad Bets

As you probably know, when loads of gamblers place money on a specific outcome – bookmakers adjust the odds to balance the action. That results in overinflated favorites with poor value. Casuals traditionally fail to recognize that odds aren’t just based on actual probabilities. That they too get driven by betting action.

Recency bias and hype affect groupthink in that most casual bettors, who drive action customarily, have a habit of overvaluing recent performances, ignoring statistical averages. Similarly, a team that has won a few games in a row may be bet on more heavily than they should be.

Sharps understand that public betting often skews odds in favor of contrarian plays. When the public bets heavily on one side, the opposite can offer value, which is why rational analysis is king overall, not just in analyzing match-ups but looking at the big picture when wagering.

Know that bookmakers look to exploit herd mentality. Aside from adjusting odds based on public betting rather than statistical probabilities, they also use media narratives and star-player hype to amplify herd behavior. Plus, they promote accumulators and boost the odds on trending picks. They do this knowing that bettors are more likely to get curious to take advantage of these and follow others rather than analyze probabilities themselves.

When Following the Crowd Makes Sense

Yes, following the crowd can sometimes be justified. For us, the safest scenario for this is when there’s a clear skill gap between teams/competitors, and public bets align with logical reasoning. When key injuries or lineup changes occur, public betting can shift towards expert analysis, but overreactions should get avoided. Remember, bookmakers adjust lines accordingly. In over/under totals or prop bet markets, where public consensus aligns with experts, confirming that sharp money is also on the same side can give a boost of confidence.

It is vital that you are able to distinguish smart consensus from blind herd behavior. If public bets get driven by data, they are worth following. Nonetheless, they can also get driven by hype, emotions, or superficial trends. You need expertise in the given competition type to spot this. Tracking line movements can help identify sharp money, which often signals value. Reverse line movement—when odds shift against the public indicates you would be better to fade the crowd.

To avoid the herd mentality trap, you should develop an independent approach to your betting entertainment that involves relying on statistical analysis and advanced metrics. But that is not all. You should also be wise to emotional triggers that can lead you toward impulsive decisions. Contrarian betting, where you bet against the public, can be profitable. That especially holds when sharp money moves lines in the opposite direction.

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