Things to Analyze Before Betting a Hefty Sum on an MMA Contest

Mixed martial arts, better known under its acronym MMA, is now a mainstream sport, and it is one that more and more people are looking to explore for sport-wagering fun. In the sub-headings below, we seek to inform MMA newbies about the nuances this sport boasts or factors that must get considered before laying down a money-backed prediction on an MMA contest. Let us get to it.

Styles & Matchups

Naturally, the first thing one should factor in when analyzing a fight is the styles of both combatants and how they match up. Long gone are the days when fighters would specialize in only one art. Today, everyone knows a bit of everything, and most are proficient to a reasonable degree in the chief skills necessary for success in the sport. Still, some fighters have a wrestling or Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) background. Others come from, let us say, kickboxing and are likely to have a significant advantage in their domain in most contests. So, you, as a bettor, should look into how two fighters stack up and where each has the upper hand.

For example, if a grappler and striker fight, as a rule of thumb, the grappler will control where the fight takes place. Yet, if the striker has decent takedown defense, he will nullify the grappler’s primary strength and force him to fight in his area of expertise. Such was the case of Mirko Cro Cop, who entered the world of MMA from kickboxing and developed excellent takedown defense, a terrific sprawl, allowing him to keep his fights standing where he most felt comfortable.

Gamblers should look at stats to discern what areas each combatant does well, and another thing no one should neglect is a fighter’s stance. It can dramatically affect the matchup, especially if one is a southpaw (left-handed). That brings its unique challenges to orthodox fighters (right-handed). The same also applies in the reverse scenario.

Momentum can too significantly impact a fighter’s confidence. Therefore, be aware of fighters on winning/losing streaks and factor in how this might affect their state of mind.

Weight Cuts

Weight cutting in combat sports is somewhat of a controversial subject for many, as some view it as a form of cheating, while it is an undeniable fact that this practice is super unhealthy for all who engage in it, it is not going away any time soon. As you likely know, there are weight classes in MMA, and fighters almost never fight at their natural, walk-around weight. They cut many pounds/kg before a fight to compete in a lower-weight class. They do this so they do not get outmuscled by fighters larger than them.

But extreme weight cuts come at a cost. Because fighters only have a day to rehydrate, cutting so much weight will impact their stamina and durability. The less dehydrated they are, the more likely they are to get KO’d on account of the skull lacking brain fluid that cushions blows (punches, kicks, slams). Monitoring weigh-ins and how fighters look on the scale gives gamblers insight into the shape someone is coming into the cage/ring.

Fight Camps & Training Partners

Where a fighter trains will no doubt influence their preparation, and after one or more losses, it is not unusual for fighters to look to switch things up, getting a new look at a novel camp. Not all teams specialize in all styles and work the same. Some are more cardio-oriented, and others favor Muay Thai, wrestling, or a different style they may excel in. So, picking a suitable camp that supplies the type and intensity of training that matches one’s upcoming opponent is mandatory. A few of the more famous MMA camps are American Top Team, KINGS MMA, Jackson-Wink MMA, and the American Kickboxing Academy. Furthermore, it is vital to see if a fighter is bringing adequate sparing partners to mimic an opponent. For instance, when Dan Henderson was going to fight Jon Jones, he brought in 6ft 6in-tall French kickboxer Cyrille Diabate to mimic Jones’ difficult-to-match range.

Gamblers can listen to podcasts and check a fighter’s, or their teammate’s social media profiles to see who he is training with to get an idea if that combatant is properly preparing for their opponent.

Location & Altitude

Home-town advantage does not play a massive role in mixed martial arts, but it can still give a psychological edge. So, it is not to get underestimated. Conversely, long-distance traveling can affect performance due to jet lag and unfamiliar environments (if a fighter does not come early enough). High-altitude locations, such as Mexico City or Denver, Colorado, have a reputation for zapping fighter’s cardio if they are not acclimated to these environments where the air is thinner. Per some doctors, it is best to come two to three days before the fight to these locations instead of a few weeks out because the body starts to adjust to the altitude, and one’s cardio gets massively impacted. It takes over a month for a person to acclimatize and become accustomed to the new conditions. Also, the bigger someone is, the slower they will go through this process, which is why the UFC pays attention not to book high-altitude fights, particularly after a horrible one between Mark Hunt and Ben Rothwell in Colorado in 2011.

Scoring & Judging

MMA fights get judged by a distinct set of criteria that have changed over time. It is vital to note that some fighters have a style that appeals to this set of standards, and because of this, they may have an edge in most contests. Remember, while damage is a scoring criterion, if one is aggressive enough or attaining grappling control, that will nullify a cutting punch.

Also, it is pretty much impossible to know who will ref and score an MMA contest, as these things usually get decided internally, the day or weekend of the fight, with refs and judges shuffled around from fight to fight. Thus, while distinct refs and scorers may have their tendencies, it is a lottery who will wind up working which fight on a given night.

Fight Metrics Statistics

It goes without saying that analyzing a fighter’s statistics gives insights into what they can and will do. Reading up on someone’s average significant strikes landed per minute, strike accuracy, takedowns per round, and takedown defense. And so, gives an understanding of a fighter’s tendencies, helping predict how a fight might unfold. Some fighters are known for their high output and relentless pace, while others are more conservative and tactical. That will get depicted in stats, and it is invaluable info.

Psychology and Mental Toughness

Here is something numbers cannot tell you. Mental toughness gets shown in fights, and some fighters have a track record of bending under pressure, while others can gut it out when things get rough. Not everyone has the ability to persevere, and many super-athletically gifted combatants are what fans call glass cannons. They come out with a bang, and if they cannot get the job done, they wilt as the fight progresses.

It is also crucial to watch interviews, press conferences, and weigh-in behavior for signs of confidence, composure, or mental pressure. What is also important is to see how a particular fighter has responded to previous setbacks. That can be telling. Some come back stronger, and others may struggle to regain their form after their confidence has gotten shattered.

Short Notice Fights

Fighters that step in on short notice. They usually have a hill to climb. There are no two ways about that. They go onto the mat unprepared and with less-than-desired info on their opponent. They also may have to endure a quick and unexpected weight cut, which can be super-depleting. On the flip side, their unique situation may take some of the pressure off, as expectations for them to perform well are usually low. The fighter that has had a fight scheduled, but his opponent fell out and must now face a new, short-notice one will also face his challenges, despite his better physical readiness. He will encounter some of the same troubles as his opponent, plus the pressure that he should win. These things play tricks on the mind and can be essential in how a fight pans out.

Injury Reports and Rumors

Something that casual MMA fans and bettors must understand is that fighters never go into a fight 100%. They almost always carry injuries throughout their training camps, which they report after the fight concludes so they can get the insurance money needed to take care of their issues. That is so because most policies do not cover injuries suffered in camp, only in the fight. Reading up on rumors and news can help supply pivotal info on a fighter’s physical state to discern how well one can expect him to perform. Sometimes, injuries or conditions are not kept that secret. For example, Kevin Lee fought Tony Ferguson with a staph infection on his chest that was most visible during the broadcast.

Fight Timing & Promotional Tactics

What we mean by the first is the moment when a fight happens. It could be after a fighter has experienced a personal tragedy, a contest back after a layoff, or the last contracted fight, which may cause that fighter to enter his bout more conservatively as not to wind up with an L and lose bargaining leverage. All this is influential in how someone will perform.

In terms of promotional tactics, when someone proves to be a charismatic individual, like Paddy the Baddy Pimblett, a promotion such as the UFC will look to bring him up slowly, first matching him up with fighters they are pretty sure he will beat, building him up, before they have to give him a real challenge. Promoters will often look to protect those they think are stars and bring in revenues by matching them up more favorably. That is a thing, and it happens all the time in every organization. Sadly, combat sports, dominantly boxing, and MMA, due to their promotional/money-making nature, are rarely about merit and more about turning a profit.  

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