Public Opinion & Betting Action/Odds

We have published a dedicated article on how bookmakers set their odds on GOSUBETTING, and we have gone into the influence that public opinion and betting action have on bookies adjusting their wagering coefficients. Still, we thought we should explore this topic deeper on our site. Hence, this is why you get this guide article.

Today, thanks to the advent of social media, public sentiment can drive betting odds more than ever. That is so because we live in an age where everyone can state their thoughts, and people assume the role of an expert with little experience or proven track record. They only need to get others to believe they know what they are talking about. Consequently, we have witnessed the rise of many betting tipsters/influencers who do not know what they are talking about. Yet, many take their word as gold and wager based on their perceived expert advice. Media coverage is also more extensive than ever, as each team and competitor has his profile on multiple platforms to promote himself, putting out their info, which may or may not be correct, projecting confidence or spun info that may sway people.

It goes without saying that social movements also create betting trends, and celebrity endorsement may lead to higher wagering volume on a given outcome. Below, we seek to explain how the public moves wagering odds and why people get engulfed in what the masses think. If that seems interesting, buckle up and follow along as we explore this subject.

Mechanisms of Public Influence & Case Study

In the past, we have explained that bookmakers continuously monitor wagering patterns, modifying their offered odds to manage risk according to what people are betting. The concept of money flow refers to the funds coming in on particular results. When a sizeable volume comes in on one outcome, bookmakers instantly start giving better odds on the opposite one to make it more attractive and even out their exposure. That process gets called shorting the odds. It is a try at an even distribution of bet money.

For example, in a boxing match, when rumors emerge that one fighter is carrying an injury into a bout, his opponent may see loads of wagering volume coming in on him, and bookies will make odds adjustments to reflect this influx of new bets. In 2015, when Mayweather faced Pacquiao in a highly anticipated contest, six years in the making, Vegas sportsbooks favored Mayweather. But Compubox’s Bob Canobbio, ex-heavyweight champion Evander Holifield, and famed coach Fredd Roach (Pacquiao’s) publicly picked Pacquiao. That caused some fans to move more action in Manny’s direction, even though Vegas, overall, stood strong for a Mayweather decision win at -140 before the contest’s start, giving Pacquiao +375 for getting the win on judges’ scorecards. There was an impact nonetheless.

As mentioned, bookies today can gauge public options and identify trends by analyzing social media and news outlets’ data while observing betting forums. It is vital to note that public options can shift rapidly. All it takes is one news tidbit that will modify how the mainstream thinks. Oftentimes, these things affect chiefly casual bettors, as veteran ones care only about data.

Psychological Factors in Play

Psychological biases heavily influence public betting. There is no doubt about that. We would go so far as to call them a top factor regarding casual betting action, as seldom do hobby sports gamblers engage in deep analysis. For the most part, they go of adopted pundit opinions, people they follow online or on the TV/radio. They bet emotionally or go by a perception they have crafted for themselves, which usually does not reflect reality. Their prediction may turn out to be correct, but why they bet on the result they did was not driven by facts/logic.

Herd behavior is a mentality, a bias, where someone follows a large group without independent analysis. Such a collective action can significantly skew odds as large volumes of money get funneled towards a specific outcome. Recency bias is another factor that impacts public opinion, as most people emphasize recent events/performances while neglecting long-term patterns and data. Fresh outcomes customarily lead casual bettors to wager more on a team doing well right now instead of viewing their performances throughout the year/season. Availability heuristics is similar to recency bias, and it is the practice of basing opinions on info that is most readily available. When someone wins a competition dramatically, the public traditionally favors that team/competitor in an upcoming contest. They choose not to look at the broader context of things, drunk by what just happened, which creates wagering patterns not based on actual, stats-deduced winning probability.

Sadly, the media has its agendas, and they often craft narratives that may get people to lay down money on certain outcomes through crafty storytelling. That happens more often than you would think. They analyze which names drive traffic, providing coverage that hopes to get people more invested in reading their articles rather than giving them objective analysis, indirectly misinforming them, and producing ill-advised betting decisions.

Quantifying the Impact of Public Opinion on Betting Odds

That happens through various analysis forms. First, we have regression analysis, a statistical tool that spots relationships between variables. In betting, it determines the influence of the public via metrics like social media mentions, wagering volume, and how this correlates to betting odds.

Data collection for this is most easily gets done through gathering Twitter/X mentions on someone winning and looking at how these trends reflect betting odds at given sportsbooks over distinct periods. Do people bet more when Twitter/X opinions move in one direction or not? Naturally, this must get analyzed for a specific time interval for which causative factors will get considered. Why are there more mentions that a team will win? Are they valid? These time-series analysis helps analysts understand how odds fluctuate and how this correlates with shifts in public sentiment.

Advice on Avoiding Public Opinion

Analyzing the mainstream sentiment can be beneficial to find value bets, but it should not be a tool in choosing how one wagers. Trending hashtags indicate who people are leaning towards, and software probably exists that aggregates data from various sources to quantify a sentiment. We see little benefit from that. Mainstream opinion often overreacts to recent events, as mentioned above, and fan biases drive emotional betting. Therefore, we suggest scanning historical data, using tools and strategies we have already discussed on this site, being aware of one’s biases, and participating in proper risk management. We recommend being your own person and avoiding being influenced by others. Stick to tried-and-tested software and approaches. Do not care what others are doing.

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