The Psychology of Streaks: Handling Winning and Losing Runs

In no activity where chance plays a role will one individual always come up on top. That is impossible because if there is an aspect of randomness in play, then that means that there is inherent unpredictability, and when things do not follow distinct patterns, then there is zero chance that the dice will always land favorably. That especially holds for any form of gambling, including sports betting, where streaks are just as common as on the casino side of things. Losing and winning are intrinsic to any gambling type, and they can impact bettors in different ways aside from hurting or boosting their financial status. They can negatively affect a gambler’s confidence level or sizably boost it. They can cause shifts in his decision-making process and more. So, it is essential to grasp their inevitable nature and the effects they bring with them.

We should define a streak before getting more into betting ones. It is a term that pertains to a sequence of consecutive outcomes. They usually evoke strong emotional reactions, positive and negative, and may birth biases such as the hot-hand fallacy, the belief that a winning run will go on for a while. However, it is vital that everyone understand that long-term success in the wagering realm does not rest on short-term outcomes but on applying long-term tactics, staying faithful to these, and keeping one’s composure while practicing proper bankroll management, meaning resisting the temptation to increase stakes when things go south.

Understanding Streaks & the Psychology Behind Them

As noted above, the randomness of streaks is attributed to the principles of chance and probability. Every wager is an independent event. As we have warned with the gambler’s fallacy, previous results do not dictate future ones. So, after a few losses, a win is not due.

In sports, we have a phenomenon called – run of form, which is a team or player performing at a high level for a distinctive period, something that many see as an indicative factor of how they will perform in the future. While that may be true, it is pivotal to understand that in a season or an individual contest, form is usually a product of multiple factors, including random variance, situational circumstances, and quality of opposition. There must be a proper field for someone’s skill to shine since nothing exists in a bubble, and performances tend to average out. Extreme outcomes are likely to be followed by more typical outcomes.

There is also the little thing of subjective perception of reality, applicable for form and streaks. Many gamblers’ perception of streaks often diverges significantly from reality. People can see patterns where there are none, and they overestimate the significance of past outcomes. Statistical analyses have shown that streaks are a natural occurrence in random sequences, so they are something to be expected but not something that anyone should rely on as a defining factor of the future.

We already covered the hot hand and the gambler’s fallacies here. But when it comes to cognitive biases in streaks. We should mention the confirmation one. That is where bettors seek info confirming their preconceptions about a streak. They may overlook certain aspects, even incurred losses, to prove a theory regarding what is likely to happen.

We discuss winning streaks leading to overconfidence, potentially leading to higher stakes or risker bets. Various studies in behavioral finance report that overconfidence results in suboptimal decision-making and boosted risk exposure. Losing streaks bring about feelings of frustration, anxiety, despair, a loss of confidence, and a sense of helplessness, which may lead a bettor down a path of chasing losses. One thing we did not mention about what can occur during losing sequences – is tilt. That is a term from poker, and it depicts a person who has become emotionally compromised and has entered a state where they start making irrational decisions.

Handling Winning & Losing Streaks

Overbetting, we somewhat covered. It is something that everyone should avoid in any scenario, as it can lead to significant losses and quick bankroll depletion. The best approach is following a predetermined staking plan based on wager sizes proportionate to one’s bankroll and risk tolerance. We have said it before. Discipline is essential in mitigating risk. According to most successful bettors, adhering to a pre-defined strategy that only gets modified when the necessary analysis is done is the right way to go about long-term betting.

Complacency is a massive hazard of winning streaks, as when people are winning, they think they are following a foolproof tactic. Then, they fail to analyze things as deeply as needed. Hence, they can often miss changing conditions, which may lead to losing their edge. That is why regularly reviewing bets to understand the factors contributing to one’s success is so necessary.

When lady luck turns her back on a bettor, staying rational during these periods is crucial in avoiding going down a path of emotional moves likely to exacerbate losses. Emotional detachment is something every sharp gambler should master. The same goes for knowing when a break must get taken to clear one’s mind, reduce the emotional intensity this activity generates, and reflect on one’s moves, seeking a fresh perspective, and not an in-moment one, concerning what just happened. Staying present and aware is the only way to make rational decisions and not get swayed by short-term fluctuations. If one does not have this quality, then undergoing emotional control training and performing mindfulness exercises should be seriously considered.

Psychological Tools and Techniques

To not fall prey to the cognitive distortions that winning/losing streaks cause. We suggest becoming aware of the specific negative thoughts emerging during these. That gets easily accomplished via keeping a thought diary. Doing that helps challenge these by examining the evidence for and against them once spotted and jotted down. For instance, if a bettor thinks – I always lose, they can counter this by recalling past wins. Following this comes reframing, replacing negative thoughts with more balanced ones. Instead of thinking – I will never win again. How about thinking – I can improve my chances over time. That is, in our opinion, without question, a much better thought to have.

Visualization also is a nifty technique. It entails creating vivid mental images of successful outcomes. Positive imagery has been proven to boost confidence and reduce anxiety. That will, no doubt, help any bettor stay focused/composed during winning/losing streaks. Mental rehearsal incorporates playing out fictitious scenarios in one’s mind and responses to handle these situations. For instance, the temptation to over-bet during a winning streak. By mentally practicing this, over and over again, control, or a sense of, can be built up.

It goes without saying that having a support system is paramount for managing the psychological challenges of streaks. Friends/family can provide quality emotional aid during tough times. Essential in overcoming these. Also, participating in a betting community can generate practical advice and insights on managing different situations, and support systems, in general, can also serve as sources of accountability. That goes a long way in staying on the right road when gambling on anything, sports betting included.

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